blackouts and other rumors

There has been quite a buzz around the expat community lately about the electricity situation in Tajikistan. According to a rather sensational warning sent out by the British and Swiss embassies, the dam that provides most of the power for the country will run out of water on Feb 10. They are suggesting that we could experience a month of total blackout, which would mean not only no electricity, but also no water (water relies on pumps), or telephone, and a shortage of gasoline and diesel (they also rely on pumps to have access to underground storage) which would lead to a shortage of food (you need fuel to power the transport that distributes food). We have heard of foreign organizations temporarily closing and expats evacuating from the country.

It is reported that this is the coldest winter since 1968. We went several weeks without the high temperature raising about freezing. Here are a few recent articles on the situation:

Citizens Ponder Black Future Amid Harsh Winter
Energy Crisis in Tajikistan Situation Report #1
Severe Weather Knocks out Water and Power in Tajikistan

It has already been a pretty tough winter. The water pipes that lead to our apartment building froze weeks ago, and we've only had running water one day so far this year. There is a water source about 1/2 mile away that I go to in order to fill our buckets. But regarding power, we have been among the fortunate ones here. We have had relatively few power cuts (we have had about 10 cuts that lasted longer than a couple of hours in a two month period), unlike most of the city which relies on 2-4 hours per day. Even in this situation, we have had trouble heating more than one room in our house, and have resorted to "camping out" in the living room. The temp in our bedroom (which we avoid entering) hovers in the low forties, while the kitchen has occasionally dipped below freezing, as evidenced by the ice stalagmite on the floor under the drip of our water filter (This has lead us to ironically sometimes put things in the fridge so they won't freeze)

My take on these rumors: I will believe it when I see it. We have heard sensational warnings and rumors before from embassies before which have turned out to be nothing. I do believe that it could get worse, but the prospect of a total blackout lasting for weeks seems a bit much. However, following the philosophy "plan for the worst, hope for the best", we did make some preparations in case something like this occurred. The photo below shows some of our purchases from today: a kerosene heater and lamp, along with 30 liters of kerosene fuel, which should provide 180 hours of heating/cooking (enough for at least a month). I've also got enough water storage containers to hold more than 250 liters.It is important that I remind our dear friends who are reading this that we are not the ones to be worried about in this situation. We have the resources to do whatever we need to do to weather the storm. In tough times, we can go out and buy whatever we need to make it through. We can afford to stockpile fuel and food that we may not even need. I spent $100 today on a heater/cooker and a month's supply of fuel which I am hoping we will never use. It is insurance. We have that luxury because we are from where we are from.

In contrast, most local people just shiver in their homes and hope for the best. The Red Cross estimated that over 5000 people around our city died last winter secondary to cold. This year has been much worse. We have heard numerous stories of little babies dying recently from the cold (this article was hard to read).

So there is the news from us. So if you don't hear from us for a while, it because we lost power. But I really doubt it will come to that. We will see.